'Minus' formula never works

Since political changes in Bangladesh, media is continuing to speculate the 'minus' formula anticipating exclusion of two of the former Prime Ministers from politics, who headed two largest political parties namely Bangladesh Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Military backed interim government in Dhaka (capital of Bangladesh), are possibly taking steps with the ultimate dream of seeing both Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Bangladesh Awami League being completely eliminated from politics or at least grabbing the command of these parties with some picked up 'leaders' such as Major (Retired) Hafiz Uddin or Suranjit Sen Gupta. In very recent step, the interim government has also expanded its thuggish attitude towards Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh by arresting its leader Moulana Matiur Rahman Nizami. Now political pundits in Dhaka are even seeing minus three or even more predictions of minuses.

Minus two Formula is the so-called ongoing political attempt in Bangladesh to banish the former prime ministers Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina from politics forever. Khaleda Zia, the widow of former President of Bangladesh Ziaur Rahman, is the Chairperson of his old party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party. She was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1991 to 1996, and then again from 2001 to 2006. Sheikh Hasina, the President of the Awami League since 1981, was the Prime Minister of Bangladesh from 1996 to 2001. She is the eldest of five children of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, the nationalist leader and the first president of Bangladesh. For the past 15 years the two ladies successively enjoyed the "power" or headed the opposition party in Bangladesh. While both have some popularity, they themselves are very hostile to each other. Although they both played key roles in the downfall of dictator Hossain Mohammad Ershad in 1990 to restore democracy in Bangladesh, they have not been in unanimity in any issue whatsoever ever since. The one in the opposition has rather routinely called for strikes and shutdowns causing destruction to the economy and hampering normal life.

Since 1990, with ouster of military dictator Hussain Muhammed Ershad, who is known as the founding father of corruption in the country, Bangladesh has seen gradual failure of democracy, continued spiralling of corruption, awe-inspiring political violence, that have become only worse with time. A common belief is that both the ladies have failed as leaders; the nation should find their replacement - a better leader. Khaleda Zia's 2001-2006 term was particularly plagued by rising religious militancy, terrorism, rampant corruption (including successive dismal reports by Transparency International), a rise in alleged attacks on minority groups (such as Hindus and Ahmadiyas as documented by the US State Department and Amnesty International) and an increasingly explosive political environment. An election was scheduled for the end of 2006, however it did not take place. The caretaker government was accused of BNP bias by Hasina, who fomented nationwide protests and shutdowns. The bitter rivalry of Bangladesh Nationalist Party and Awami League was pushing the country towards a civil war. The head of the caretaker government stepped down, many believe under pressure from the military and Fakhruddin Ahmed was selected to replace him. Emergency law has been declared and a massive campaign to crack down on corruption ensued. The election is postponed indefinitely, probably at least a year as better voter lists are being generated.

Both Khaleda Zia and Sheikh Hasina hold absolute power over the internal decision making process of their respective political parties. They have so far not encouraged the practice of democracy within the party although they are very vocal about establishing democratic practices for the country. Sheikh Hasina tried to instigate reform measures by retiring everyone over 60 in her party. This would have effectively banned her in the process, but many interpreted this as a reason to bring her son, Sajeeb Wazed to the throne.

Interim government's chief executive, Dr. Fakhruddin Ahmed's administration, amid some domestic and international protestations, is now giving signals that it will end the ultimate authority of Hasina and Zia over their parties at any cost. It believes that true democracy cannot be established in Bangladesh if these two major political parties of the country are not run democratically. With this end in view, the government is going forward very tactfully without being explicit. This very political attempt goes by the name of Minus two Formula.

Both Sheikh Hasina and Khaled Zia have intended to continue dynasty politics. Khadeda's son, Tarique Rahman was set to become the next leader of BNP. Tarique Rahman was the joint-secretary of BNP during Khaleda's last term. But he was only second in line when it came to political power.

Similarly Sheikh Hasina invited her son, Sajeeb Wazed to visit Bangladesh on numerous occasions. He plays an active political role in Awami League and was believed to replace Sheikh Hasina as the next leader of Awami League despite some reservations within the party.

The Minus 2 Formula was intended to abolish these dynasties and in the process split up the BNP and Awami League parties so that these divided parties would care more about the contributors rather than the ideological figureheads their biological successors. As a result Tarique Rahman (son of Khaleda Zia) is now in jail while BNP is effectively fractured and is continuing without him.

Due to waning popularity in the party (as a result of Sheikh Hasin'a arrest), Sajeeb Wazed (son of Sheikh Hasina) opts to stay in the US and lead a 'worldwide revolution', while Awami League members are restructuring without his input.

The 2006–2008 Bangladeshi political crisis began in October 2006 when a caretaker government — designated by the constitution to oversee the vote — assumed power without exhausting the provisions of selection of Chief of Caretaker government at the end of October. Its purpose was to steer the country through the scheduled parliamentary elections. However, on 3 January 2007, the Awami League made its predicted announcement that it (and the 18 smaller parties attached to it) would boycott the general election scheduled to be held on 22 January 2007, questioning its fairness and the non-availability of an accurate voters list. This announcement led to widespread violence and political rioting. This on-going political crisis has stemmed largely from an apparent politicalisation of the civil administration, election commission and defense force that was perceived to be skewing the election process towards a pre-determined result. This follows on from almost 2 decades of bitter rivalry between the Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). The BNP-led government stepped down in October at the end of their term. Although the caretaker government was appointed immediately afterwards, Awami League and its allies maintained their position regarding the fairness of the upcoming election.

Violence erupted throughout the country, killing more than 40 people. According to Bangladesh's unique electoral system, a caretaker government is entrusted to oversee the national parliamentary elections, which must be held within ninety days of dissolving a parliament. The constitution stipulates that the last retired Chief Justice of the Supreme Court lead this caretaker government as its Chief Advisor (with status of Prime Minister) and would appoint a maximum of ten advisors (with status of ministers) to assist him. The caretaker government runs all the state's affairs during these ninety days, including conducting the nationwide parliamentary elections. However, during this time, the Defense Ministry's charge is transferred to the country's President, who assumes the role of Commander-in-Chief.

At the end of BNP's 2001-2006 term, Awami League accused BNP of politicising the top levels of civil government as well as the election commission, judiciary and the command of the Army, claiming that a free and fair poll would not be possible unless mass changes were brought about in the administration. They also questioned the immediate past Chief Justice's neutrality and accused him of being biased towards BNP.

Amid protests and violence led by Awami League right after the term of BNP ended in October 2006, the former Chief Justice K M Hasan declined to take the job of Chief Advisor (CA). As a final option in the constitution, President Iajuddin Ahmed himself took the role, in addition to his own responsibilities, and appointed an advisory council.

Awami League, although wary of Iajuddin as the CA, agreed to take part in the elections but also demanded that he bring mass changes in the administration to free it from BNP's politicisation. They also demanded that a new and accurate voter list be compiled. The allegation that the Voter list was flawed has been somewhat supported by EU's election observers. Awami League also accused Iajuddin of being a puppet of BNP and on January 3, 2007 finally declared that they would boycott the election and violence broke out across the country.

On January 11, 2007, the United Nations and the European Union suspended their election monitoring operations because they felt that conditions for a credible vote did not exist. In a statement, the EU said, "The European Commission has decided to suspend its Election Observation Mission (EOM) to Bangladesh covering the parliamentary elections on 22nd January. The European Commission has called back the long-term observers already on the ground, and will not deploy the other phases of its observation mission, which was due to be led by MEP Alexander Graf Lambsdorff." A spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon stated that "The political crisis in Bangladesh has severely jeopardized the legitimacy of the electoral process. The announced cancellation of numerous international observation missions is regrettable. The United Nations has had to suspend all technical support to the electoral process, including by closing its International Coordination Office for Election Observers in Dhaka.

On the same day as the UN and EU withdrawal from the election procedures, chief advisor of the caretaker government Iajuddin Ahmed (the current president) announced a state of emergency in Bangladesh after weeks of political crisis over the upcoming elections, implementing a late night to early morning (11 p.m. to 5 a.m.) curfew. It has been suggested that that was in fact a form of coup. Within hours of the state of emergency declaration, President Ahmed announced his resignation as chief advisor, as well as the postponement of the scheduled election. Prior to his own resignation, he accepted those of nine of the ten advisors of the caretaker government. The remaining advisor on the board Fazlul Haque was then appointed by President Ahmed as the interim chief advisor. "It is fairly apparent that it was done under pressure from the army because of the threat that the country could lose its peacekeeping role," said analyst Zafar Sobhan, a columnist for an English language newspaper in Dhaka. On January 12, 2007, the former Bangladesh Bank governor Fakhruddin Ahmed was sworn in as the new chief advisor. Mr. Ahmed appointed five advisors on January 13 to form the new interim government. The curfew was lifted once the police received reports of Fakruddin Ahmed being named the head of the caretaker government. The state of emergency, however, continues to be in effect until further notice, and it suspends some basic rights provided by the constitution, such as the freedom of movement, assembly, and speech.

The most important part of the ongoing drive of the present military backed interim government in Bangladesh against corruption is, althought it claims of cleansing country's politics from corruption, muscle power and black money, the founding father of corruption in Bangladeshi politics, former military dictator Hussain Muhammed Ershad or members of his team (some have already left Ershad's company) like Shah Moazzem Hussain, Major General (Retired) Mahmudul Hassan (known as thief of Baghdad), Ziauddin Ahmed Bablu, Ruhul Amin Howlader, Kazi Zafar Ahmed (known as Sugar Zafar), Shwafiqul Ghani Swapan, Fakhrul Islam Munshi, Momota Wahab, Jinat Musharraf (Ershad's concubine) and many others are surprisingly left out of such anti corruption drive.

Main figure from Bangladesh army, who is also the second man in country's national committee for combating corruption is Lieutenant General Masud Uddin Chowdhury. Although he showed merciless attitude towards many, he spared his own brother-in-law, Major (Sacked) Sayeed Iskander, who is the brother of Khaleda Zia and the most corrupt man in Bangladesh. With the help of Masud Uddin, it is reported that, Iskander was allowed to leave Bangladesh silently with members of his family. Similarly, Barrister Aminul Huq, who is one of the top corrupts in BNP government fled the country with the help of his own brother, who is a Major General. There are many such instances, such as the case of Major (Retired) Kamrul Islam, a corrupt minister in BNP cabinet, who is yet to come under proper actions, despite the fact that Anti Corruption Commission (ACC) served a notice on him asking statement of wealth. There are rumors in Dhaka that, members of ACC are becoming rich by using their present position, as many in the country are considering this organization as most notorious.

Everything, whatever the present military backed government in Bangladesh is doing is aimed at ultimately minusing top figures in major political parties, and replacing those posts with army loyalists, in order to ensure a kind of unique martial law in the country for years.

Similar formula was adopted by Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf as well as military junta in Thailand. But, finally neither Musharraf nor the junta in Bangkok could finally accomplish their goals. People voted those politicians back to power. Pakistan is already slipping out of Musharraf's grip. Thaksin Shinawatra is back to Thailand as a hero. Who knows what will happen in Bangladesh. Return of the Begums or midnight abscond of the members in the government and its back ground forces in the country?

Experts are smelling blood and flesh in Bangladeshi politics soon with the growing assumption of no election during next couple of years. Someone say, there will be a military takeover, while other say, mass revolution. What fate awaits this South Asian nation, possibly time will say. But, one thing the present rulers in Dhaka need to know, minus formula never works!