Friday 30 October 2009

Transition to Democracy or Autocracy in Bangladesh?

Eight Million voters in Bangladesh are now set to cast their votes on Monday to elect the next government thus making a new journey towards democracy. This is the general perception in Bangladesh and in the world that the people of the country are already fed up with the military controlled regime in Dhaka for a number of reasons. One of the key reasons is their failure in controlling the exorbitant rise in the price of essentials.

Chief of Bangladesh Army General Moeen U Ahmed and Chief Executive of the Interim Government, Fakhruddin Ahmed are reportedly in holiday mood at Cox's Bazar sea beach. Bangladeshi media are seeing this as a signal of their readiness in handing over power to the next government after December 29 polls. Surely, such leisure moment would have been appropriate if both were successful in what they promised to the nation in past two years. But, they have no plus point in the bag except bunch of failures and black spots. General Moeen and Fakhruddin were initially busy in defaming politicians as much as possible. Especially Moeen was extremely offensive in his comments and actions, which went many a times against the minimum level of code of conduct of any person of military service. If the next elected government will not accord general amnesty to the members of 1/11, General Moeen and many others like him may see the Trial Dias for a number of offenses.

At the same time, Fakhruddin, who earned reputation of being an honest person, has lost his image in the country as he failed to ensure good governance and even failed to do anything good to the nation, except his attempts in defaming the politicians en messe especially two of the Prime Ministers and finally surrendering to them after failing to find any illegal wealth accrued either by Sheikh Hasina Wajed or Mrs. Zia.

As election is getting very near, there are series of messages from Dhaka, which surely generates lots of doubts and confusions about the neutrality of the administration in Dhaka. According to a very small piece of news appeared in Amar Desh, a vernacular daily, members of Rapid Action Battalion arrested a newspaper hawker for keeping electoral leaflets of Bangladesh Nationalist Party. Naturally anyone can now raise question as to whether Bangladesh Nationalist Party is outlawed in the country or the members of RAB are assigned by the government to do anything to stop supporters of this party from campaigning? Another report in an English newspaper in Dhaka says a joint secretary in the government is openly working on behalf of the Grand Alliance!

For the sake of an acceptable election, country's administration should always remain neutral. But, in Bangladesh, during the coming election, it is seen that a large section of civil and military administration are actively working for Bangladesh Awami League and its Grand Alliance. Many of such officers are even seen at the residence of Sheikh Hasina during late hours of the day. This is already a known fact to many of the intelligence agencies in Bangladesh. But, the government is reluctant in taking any actions against those officials.

A high ranking officer with DGFI, whose name starts with 'M' is a regular visitor at Sheikh Hasina's residence. It is even reported that this officer is helping Bangladesh Awami League in preparing list of his colleagues who were actively involved with 1/11 with the suggestions of actions under the Military Code. It is even reported that this high ranking official with DGFI is a close aide of the Army Chief. In this case, a natural question may rise in the minds of everyone if General Moeen is now trying to put total responsibility of 1/11 on his fellow officers, in order to create a smooth 'exit' point for him?

Pre poll surveys conducted by various organizations and institutions in Bangladesh are seeing a hung parliament under the Grand Alliance led by Sheikh Hasina. A leading news agency has forecasted former military dictator Hussain Muhammed Ershad's possibility of becoming Bangladesh's next 'king' instead of 'King Maker'.

From the recent statements of General Ershad, it is evident that he is annoyed with Bangladesh Awami League for a number of reasons. Sheikh Hasina did not keep her commitment with Jatiyo Party in giving them the promised number of seats. Even Ershad is ignored by Awami League in a number of meetings in Ershad's own district Rangpur. If the election result of December 29 elections will go in favor of the Grand Alliance, possibly Ershad will be forming the next government. But, some analysts are even seeing a 1991 type result in the next General Election, where 4-Party Alliance led by Bangladesh Nationalist Party will get the required number of seats in forming the government.

Some other analysts are seeing post election confrontation in the country, which may even shut the doors to democracy and open another episode of military rule for some more years. In such case, the neighboring nation in South Asia will possibly face the worst ever challenges in the days to come.

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