Experts speculate widely about the composition and tactics of the next generation of Jihadists. This speculation stems from the fact that transnational groups are harder collection targets than nation-states. Such ambiguity and imprecision is likely to endure indefinitely, and is particularly worrisome concerning "next-generation" terrorism
studies.
Osama bin Laden has been planning for the next generation of Jihadists since he began speaking publicly in the mid-1990s. Bin Laden has always described the "defensive jihad" against the United States as potentially a multi-generational struggle. After the 9/11 attacks, bin Laden explained that, even as the anti-U.S. war intensified, the torch was being passed from his generation to the next. "We have been struggling right from our youth," bin Laden wrote in late 2001:
"We sacrificed our homes, families, and all the luxuries of this worldly life in the path of Allah (was asking Allah to accept our efforts). In our youth, we fought with and defeated the (former) Soviet Union (with the help of Allah), a world super power, and now we are fighting the USA. We have never let the Muslim Ummah down.
"Muslims are being humiliated, tortured and ruthlessly killed all over the world, and its time to fight these satanic forces with the utmost strength and power. Today the whole of the Muslim Ummah is depending (after Allah) upon the Muslim youth, hoping that they would never let them down."
The question arising is, of course, what threat will the next generation of al-Qaeda-inspired Jihadist pose? Based on the admittedly imprecise information available, the answer seems to lie in three discernible trends: a) the next generation will be at least as devout but more professional and less operationally visible; b) it will be larger, with more adherents and potential recruits; and c) it will be better educated and more adept at using the tools of modernity, particularly communications and weapons.
The next Jihadist generation's piety will equal or exceed that of bin Laden's generation. The new Jihadist, having grown up in an internet and satellite television-dominated world, will be more aware of Muslim struggles around the world, more comfortable with a common Muslim identity, more certain that the U.S.-led West is "oppressing" Muslims, and more inspired by the example bin Laden has set—bin Laden's generation had no bin Laden. While leaders more pious than bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are hard to imagine, Western analysts tend to forget that many of bin Laden's first-generation lieutenants did not mirror his intense religiosity.
The rising Jihadists are less likely to follow the example of some notorious first-generation fighters, and more likely to model themselves on the smiling, pious, and proficient Mohammed Atef, al-Qaeda's military commander, killed in late 2001 and, to this day, al-Qaeda's most severe individual loss. A former Egyptian security officer, Atef was efficient, intelligent, patient, ruthless—and nearly invisible. He was a combination of warrior, thinker, and bureaucrat, pursuing his leaders' plans with no hint of ego. Atef's successor as military commander, the Egyptian Sayf al-Adl, is cut from the same cloth. Four years after succeeding Atef, for example, Western analysts cannot determine his identity—whether he is in fact a former Egyptian Special Forces colonel named Makkawi—or his location—whether he in South Asia, Iraq, or under arrest in Iran. Similarly, the Saudis' frequent publication of lengthening lists of "most wanted" al-Qaeda fighters—many unknown in the West—suggests the semi-invisible Atef-model is also used by Gulf state Islamists. Finally, the U.K.-born and -raised suicide bombers of July 7, 2005 foreshadow the next mujahideen generation who will operate below the radar of local security services.
At the basic level, the steady pace of Islamist insurgencies around the world—Iraq, Chechnya and the northern Caucasus, southern Thailand, Mindanao, Kashmir and Afghanistan—and the incremental "Talibanization" of places like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and northern Nigeria, ensure a bountiful new Jihadist generation. Less-tangible factors will also contribute to this bounty.
Osama bin Laden remains the unrivaled hero and leader of Muslim youths aspiring to join the Jihadist. His efforts to inspire young Muslims to jihad against the U.S.-led West seem to be proving fruitful.
Easily accessible satellite television and Internet streaming video will broaden Muslim youths' perception that the West is anti-Islamic. U.S. public diplomacy cannot negate the impressions formed by real-time video from Palestine, Iraq, and Afghanistan that shows Muslims battling "aggressive" Western forces and validating bin Laden's claim that the West intends to destroy Islam.
The ongoing "fundamentalization" of the two great, evangelizing monotheist religions will enhance an environment already conducive to Islamism. The growth of Protestant evangelicalism in Latin America, and the aggressive, "church militant" form of Roman Catholicism in Africa, has and will revitalize the millennium-old Islam-vs.-Christianity confrontation, creating a sense of threat and defensiveness on each side. Compounding the threat posed by the next, larger generation is the possibility that analysts underestimated the first generation's size. Western leaders have consistently claimed large al-Qaeda-related casualties; currently, totals range from 5,000-7,000 fighters and two-thirds of al-Qaeda's leadership. If the claims are accurate, we should ponder whether the West has ever fought a "terrorist group" that can lose 5,000-7,000 fighters, dozens of leaders, and still be assessed militarily potent and perhaps WMD-capable? The multiple captures of al-Qaeda's "third-in-command"—most recently Abu Ashraf al-Libi—and the remarkable totals of "second- and third-in-commands" from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's organization suggests the West's accounting of Islamist manpower—at the foot soldier and leadership levels—is, at best, tenuous.
Recent scholarship suggests al-Qaeda and its allies draw support primarily from Muslim middle- and upper-middle classes. This helps explain why bin Laden places supreme importance on exploiting the internet for security, intelligence, paramilitary training, communications, propaganda, religious instruction, and news programs. It also points to the West's frequent failure to distinguish between the Islamists' hatred for Westernization—women's rights and secularism, for example—and their openness to modernity's tools, especially communications and weaponry.
Tricks of Al Qaeda:
As part of its tactic of motivating Muslims in becoming haters of Unites States and the West, Al Qaeda and bin Laden are putting highest emphasis on the fact of continuing anti Semitic sentiments in the minds of the Muslim population, as well as leave an impression that, Palestinians are being oppressed and killed by 'occupation' forces under direct patronization of United States and the Western nations. Bin Laden continues to achieve success in molding minds of leaders in a number of Muslim nations in treating Israel as an enemy nation thus openly opposing the existence of this only Jewish democratic state in the Middle East. There are a number of Muslim nations in the world, which already have established diplomatic or trade relations with Israel, while some nations are yet to recognize Israel. But in the entire Muslim world, Bangladesh is the only country, which continues complete ban on Israel. For example, Bangladesh authorities do not allow trade, telecommunication, postal services and any means of communications with Israel. Some of the influential figures in the government in Bangladesh continue to believe that establishing any contacts with Israel is sedition. In recent past, Bangladeshi foreign advisor in the military backed interim government; Dr. Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury officially pronounced elimination of Israel from the global map and termed United States as the 'mail culprit' for patronization Israel. Such theory of Dr. Iftekhar was the echo of Iranian, Palestinian and other extremist nations. It is even reported in international media that, Dr. Iftekhar is inclined in having closer ties with terror patron nations like Iran.
Eminent columnist and terrorism analyst Selig S Harrison wrote an opinion editorial in Los Angeles Times recently, where he urged the western nations to have strong grip on Dhaka [capital of Bangladesh], as he sees rise of Al Qaeda influence in that country. Meanwhile, leading vernacular daily in Bangladesh, Amader Shomoy, published a news item quoting source in Police intelligence unit, where it said that, one of the top kingpins of Al Qaida, Ayman Jawahiri came to Bangladesh in 2006 and stayed at a guest house located at city's Gulshan area. A local handcraft dealer invited Jawahiri to Bangladesh. He [the local trader] established links with Al Qaida through a Pakistani diplomat in Dhaka. He visited Pakistan and met a local businessman named Kashim Niyogi. Later they went to Kandaher in Afghanistan and met Al Qaida kingpins.
Amader Shomoy further said, Al Qaida terrorists stayed in Dhaka at the guest house owned by a former minister in the BNP-Islamist Coalition government. Bangladeshi police intelligence got information on staying of 18 Al Qaida terrorists at the guest house under the local hospitality of the Bangladeshi businessman. It is also revealed by Detective Branch that the latest statement of Ayman Jawahiri was recorded in Dhaka. During end April 2006, Al Qaida terrorists went to Comilla district from Dhaka and stayed there for some days.
Dhaka's most influential newspaper Weekly Blitz said, Bangladeshi Islamist leaders like Mufti Shahidul Islam, Fazlul Huq Amini etc have close links with this notorious terror outfit. There are even evidences of Al Qaida's link with a particular media group in Bangladesh, which owns a newspaper and television channel. It is learnt from various evidences that, Al Qaida is investing significant amount of money through this media group, with the aim of establishing a strong grip over media.
It may be mentioned here that, Weekly Blitz is the only newspaper in Bangladesh, which continues to confront rise of radical Islam and militancy. Editor of this newspaper faces sedition, treason and blasphemy charges for his courageous writings against Islamist militancy. Bangladeshi government does not hesitate in persecuting this internationally known award winning journalist despite numerous appeals from the global community including US Congress, European Parliament, and Australian Senate etc.
Since Bangladesh government is silent on the issue of Al Qaeda kingpin Ayman Jawahiri's secret trip to Dhaka, the matter is gradually becoming prolific to international community. If in case, the reported visit of Jawahiri is true, international community as well as South Asian neighbors would quite obviously turn extremely concerned, as Al Qaeda's presence in Muslim Bangladesh will stand as serious threat to regional and international security.
Bangladesh is under indirect military rule since January 11, 2007, when the much anticipated election was postponed due to massive political confrontation. Everyone is convinced that such actions by the armed forces were surely required to save the nation from possible civil war. Meanwhile, since political changes in 2007, the present rulers in Dhaka are showing significant actions in combating corruption. But, in recent past, due to its fear of not finding any exit point, the present government has entered into a secret agreement with Awami League, thus releasing former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on unusual bail and now are even considering to withdraw all the corruption charges against her, in order to place Awami League in power, which has equally promised the present government in giving a smooth exit point. But, political analysts feel that, such hidden agreement with Awami League might ultimately back fire, as other mainstream political parties may turn angry at this unique arrangement. On the other hand, ultra Islamist parties like Khelafat Majlish feels delighted seeing the hope of coming back of Awami League in power, as Khelafat Majlish signed a treaty with Awami League in 2006 for establishment of Shariah Law in Bangladesh, once it [Awami League] gets into country's administration. It is even learnt that, pro-Saudi Islamist leader in Bangladesh [who also enjoys close ties with Al Qaeda], Moulana Muhiddun Khan is working to form a 22-Party grand alliance of all Islamist forces, with the aim of becoming running mate of Awami League in the next possible government in Dhaka. Moulana Muhiddin is one of the front ranking vocals in establishing Shariah Law in Bangladesh. He is also one of the top patrons of anti-Semitic notions in that country.
It is well understood that, policymakers in Washington are now mostly occupied with the upcoming presidential election, which possibly stops them from putting focus on Al Qaeda's presence in Bangladesh. But, analysts feel that, for the sake of international security and stability, Washington definitely needs to put immediate focus on this extremely critical issue as well investigate the matter. It would be a blunder for United States to give any further time to Al Qaeda in gaining more strength in the tiny Muslim country in South Asia.
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